Thoughts
about the focus for my weekly blogs come from many sources. Top of the list
will be things I have read, followed in no particular order by things I might
have heard, seen or experienced. I often hear something that piques my interest
on the Radio. Radio 4 is my favourite station. The variety of programmes means there
is always something interesting to listen to, as I drive. Last week, driving home,
I listened to the Radio 4’s PM programme. One of the reports was a follow up to
an interview the day before with Melissa Ryan. She is one of the co-chairs of
the resident doctors’ committee.
Resident
doctors were formally known as junior doctors. Last week they announced they
would be taking five days of industrial action later in July. The threat of
industrial action results from the government refusing to agree to the British
Medical Association’s (BMA) demand for a further 29.2% pay rise. Resident doctors
agreed a two year 22% pay uplift last year. This year they have been offered a further
5.4% pay award. However, the BMA argues that when inflation is factored in,
doctors’ real-term pay has actually fallen since 2008.
The
PM discussion explored measuring inflation. It was a discussion that took me
back to my MBA studies when we were taught how to calculate the future value of
money and those net present value calculations which we had to do for our
capital business cases. Horrible!!!
There
are two main ways of calculating inflation, the Retail Prices Index (RPI) and
the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). In the UK, since 2008, the agreed gold
standard for measuring the rate of inflation, is the CPI. The BMA have chosen
to use the RPI. Now to demonstrate why these two different measures are
important, I turn towards the independent health and social care ‘think tank’ -
the Nuffield Institute - for help.
Comparing
changes to pay over different points in time will sometimes give differing
outcomes; so will using different measure of inflation. Absolutely so. The
Nuffield Trust compared the impact on resident doctors pay since 2008 using
both RPI and CPI measures. They have calculated that by the end of this financial
year (2025-26), if RPI were used, doctors pay would have decreased by some
17.9%. However, using CPI as the measure over the same period would result in a
fall of just 4.7% since 2008.
Now as regular readers of this blog know I try and avoid politics, so
I don’t want to delve into the political consequences of untangling and
resolving this situation. I am however, interested in the potential sociological
consequences that are beginning to emerge. When I wrote my PhD thesis I drew amongst
others, upon the work of Melvin Konnor, a brilliant anthropologist. One of the books he published in 1993, was
called The Trouble With Medicine. I urge you to try and get a copy to
read, as it is remarkably prescient when thinking about today’s health care zeitgeist.
In the book, he, at one point, describes doctors as the Tribe that Wears White. It was an interesting idea, and reflected the often familial, but definite professional ties that bind doctors together as a single powerful profession. Allegedly, if you upset one doctor, you run the risk of upsetting them all. This hasn’t been my experience, but clearly there is a sense of loyalty to each other not seen in many other professions. We saw this loyalty in action during the previous 11 occasions that resident doctors took industrial action. Consultants and other senior doctors stepped into the gaps left by striking resident doctors. It felt like an act of beneficence that saw their junior doctors exercising their right to take industrial action while reducing the potential harm to patients. There are signs that the social cohesion evident across the medical profession is beginning to splinter.
Notably, the immensely popular professor, TV doctor and pioneer of
IVF treatment, Lord Robert Winston, resigned from the BMA last week. He had
been a member for 64 years. He noted that taking industrial action now ran the
risk of damaging people’s trust in the profession. It was a view echoed by Lord
Ara Darzi, who had recently undertaken a review of the state of the NHS. Recent
polls suggest there is very little support from the public for further
industrial action. Large numbers of people across England are struggling in so many
ways. Often people’s lives are fragile and precarious. Lord Winston noted that:
‘strike action completely ignores the vulnerability of people in front of
you’.
Melvin Konnor expanded his thinking about who has infiltrated the
tribe that wore white, ‘the tribe under study is all of us; doctors, nurses,
hospital managers, government representatives, bureaucrats, lawyers, and last
but not least, patients, a position that sooner of later includes us all’. The
governments recently published ’10 year Health Plan; Fit for the Future’
gives us all a chance to really change the way health care is provided in the
UK – I hope we don’t blow this opportunity.
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