Alright Prof, alright?

I have a new laptop. This week I have been able to spend time learning to use it. Not easy as it has a built in, default AI approach to everything – more of which later. However, the reason I’ve had the time to explore the computer is that I’ve been rather poorly all week. I have stayed at home, gone through a couple of boxes of honey and ginger Lemsips, a bottle and half of Benylin cough medicine (I know there isn’t much therapeutic value, but at £7 a bottle I can convince myself there is), countless paracetamol tablets and a bottle of Sudafed sinus spray. And don’t talk to me about tissues.

It has been a miserable week. I have slept at all the wrong times, had aching limbs and a constant headache. Apart from walking Dylan around the block, and feeding the animals, over the past week I have done very little. Occasionally, I’ve looked at emails or social media, but have had little spare energy or even the inclination to do much more. I became addicted to Four in a Bed; the Secret Life of the Zoo, and watched all 21 episodes of Gavin and Stacey (including the two Christmas specials). I seemed to have adopted the latter’s ‘I will do things now, in a minute’ approach to everyday tasks. Not feeling able to do anything more useful has been immensely frustrating.

Don’t get me wrong, I have been very well looked after by J. Her nursing care, compassion and patience has been wonderful. Like many folk, and men in particular, I don’t play the sick role well. I know I become short tempered, grumpy and irritable when feeling unwell. Thankfully for those around me it doesn’t happen that often, as I’m generally a healthy person.

This past week I have kept repeating to myself, it’s a head cold. Nothing more than a common cold that is lingering. Get over yourself Tony. However, as I write this, I’m not feeling much better than I did last Monday when it all started. I know that the cold will pass, and in a week’s time I will have caught up with things not done and all of the past week will have been forgotten. For that I’m grateful. As I have said to J many times this past week, there are many folk out there who are living with health issues that won’t just fade away, and they will be living with their health challenges for the rest of their lives.

It is projected that by 2040, one in five people living in England will be living with a major illness. Yes, that is a sobering thought. There are about 20 long-term conditions that together account for over two-thirds of today’s health care demands. The number of people living with these conditions, and in particular, cancer, diabetes and kidney disease, is likely to increase by 30% over the next 15-20 years. Already we know that 58% of people over the age of 60 are living with one or more long term health issues. Added to which will be the yet unknown health care problems of all those who are currently obese, as they reach old age after many years of obesity.

Dealing with these anticipated population health issues will not be easy. If you have the time, and think you are someone who isn’t easily depressed, have a look at the recently published and excellent long read from the Health Foundation, Nine Major Challenges Facing Health and Care in England. As always from the Health Foundation, this is a report that is evidence-based, well-argued and completely accessible. Perhaps the tenth challenge is reading the report and reflecting and responding to what might be done.

Whichever political party succeeds in the next general election, these are challenges that will need to be addressed, and it will not be through yet another reorganisation of the NHS. And although extra money always helps, these challenges will not be effectively addressed by simply throwing more money at solving the underlying issues. Interestingly, for the first 26 years of the NHS, there was very little change to the organisation and provision of services, but after 1974, it has felt like the NHS has been in a constant state of flux and change. The latest of these changes, the introduction of Integrated Care Services, has still to come of age and start to deliver improvements.

Over all that time, there has been little change to the way in which social care has been funded, or services provided. We know that the percentage of older people (officially, those over 65 years of age) in the UK population continues to increase. If you weren’t depressed by the contents of the Health Foundation report, have a look at the latest report from the Office of National Statistics on the emerging older population profile. It’s clear that many of these folk are going to need the support of social care, as they live longer than ever before.

Before I finish this blog, a quick return to the AI problem. Up to now, as I write my weekly blog, I will often ask Google a question for clarification, like for example, how many people live with dementia in England? (approximately 850,000) – I would be pointed to a series of reports where the information could be discovered. This new AI guided enquiry system on my laptop constantly tries to provide me with a complete and well-argued answer. Often, it seems to me, it doesn’t succeed with either. As yet, I’m not a great fan of the benefits of AI. J is more enthusiastic about exploring its possibilities.

Yesterday she showed me two sides of paper which was the answer to a question she had posed on ChatGPT to try it out. I dutifully read it and said it was okay, but it was just MBA mumbo jumbo – ‘how would you know?’ she said, ‘you don’t have an MBA’ – I quietly pointed out that despite only ever getting a CSE in Art at school, I did manage to achieve an MBA in 1995. We are not putting our names forward for the Mr and Mrs Quiz show. Last thought, despite me feeling poorly, I’m glad to say the world has kept turning. And that’s the way it should be.