Float like a butterfly - touching connections

It was in 1963 that the meteorologist and mathematician, Edward Lorenz first started to use the analogy of the butterfly effect to explain chaos theory. Despite apparent chaos, everything is connected. So, something that happens in one part of the world could result in an impact somewhere else in the world. The example often cited is that if a butterfly flaps its wings in Africa, it results in a storm across Europe. Of course, in real life the proposition is slightly more complex than in this popular usage. For me, I have always used it in my supervisory relationships with my PhD students to help them track connections between phenomena and outcomes. Over the last 13 years of writing this blog, I have enjoyed making similar connections in the telling of my stories. This week is no exception. I am going to start these connections by mentioning my dad.

My dad is 93. He’s having a hard time right now. My mum is living with dementia and the strain on their 69 year old relationship is difficult to witness and to be part of. They live in Wales, but across the whole of the UK, the number of people living with dementia is estimated at more than 850,000. Each case is a tragedy for the individual and their family. It is said there are 540,000 carers of people living with dementia in England. The impact on the carers’ lives cannot be underestimated. Many will be family members. As the impact of dementia becomes more challenging as the disease inevitably progresses, so the demand on families to support those living with dementia grows.

Our family is no different to millions of others, and I am very grateful for all that my brothers and sisters do to support my parents. Given we are spread all over the world, it is truly amazing. We are, nevertheless, reaching the point where the support needs to shift more to professional input and there are some difficult decisions that we need to help my dad work through.

I was pondering this last week when Radio Four reported the death of George ‘Jonny’ Johnson, at the age of 101. George was the last surviving member of the 617 squadron. For younger readers, this was the squadron that was formed to destroy the Mohne, Eder and Sorpe dams in the Rhur Valley which powered the German war production factories during the Second World War. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the 617 squadron was called the Dam Buster squadron, and no, my dad was not involved. George was just 21 years old when he took part in the 1943 operation, which famously involved the Barnes Wallis’s experimental ‘bouncing’ bombs.

The attack, which was successful, was carried out on 16th May 1943. 19 planes were lost, 53 men died and three were captured. Interestingly the film, ‘The Dam Busters’ was first shown in British cinemas on 16th May 1955. I doubt my dad went to see it, as I had been born less than 24 hours previously. However, it was one of the first films I remember my dad taking me to see at the cinema. Whilst I can’t remember much about the film, the memory of my dad taking me to watch it, is very strong.

Likewise, in July 2018, I was at the live ‘The Wall’ concert, performed by Roger Waters (Pink Floyd) which was a feast of great music, wonderful lighting effects and of course the building of a vast wall in the arena. Samples from the ‘Dam Busters’ film were projected on to the wall as it was being created and eventually destroyed. The Roger Waters concert was at what was then called the MEN arena – now called AO Arena. We were due to go to this venue next week to see Rod Stewart – sadly, due to the train strikes we can’t get there and have had to sell our tickets. I have been a long-time fan of Rod and have seen him many times, the last time being at the Lytham Festival in 2019 where I was gifted VIP tickets. It is disappointing not to be able to see him one last time. Of course, the train strikes are just one of many threatened or planned strikes occurring over the next few weeks

It does seem as if we are heading for a Winter of Discontent once again. I well remember the first one in 1978/79. The winter weather that year was also severe, the coldest for many years. Many different private and public sector organisations also went or threatened to go on strike. Then as today, rail, transport, grave diggers, dustbin-men and even the ambulance service took prolonged industrial action bringing huge disruption to many people across the UK. There is another interesting connection to those times, occurring today.

The Royal College of Nursing voted at their conference in January 1979 to ask for the pay of nurses to be raised to the same level in real terms as 1974, which would have been a 25% pay rise. On the 22nd of that month, many public sector unions, including several nurses, took part in a ‘Day of Action’ – a 24 hour strike and protest march. David Ennals, the then Secretary of State for Health and Social Services reported that 1,100 of the 2,300 NHS hospitals were only treating emergencies. Patients with cancer had their essential treatment delayed and/or even stopped. It was a torrid time, and like the war in Ukraine, I never thought it might happen once again in my lifetime. Ironically, the first winter of discontent saw the Conservatives take power, and Mrs Thatcher, the first UK female Prime Minister, began her 11-year premiership. However, I predict despite the connections with history, this is an unlikely outcome for the Conservative Party following this winter of discontent. Sadly, for my mum and dad, and many others like them, it is also likely to mean that they won’t get the timely response they need from health and social care services.