Sunday, 24 July 2022

In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity*

Yesterday’s newspaper headlines were dominated by the word ‘chaos’. Chaos and chaos theory has long interested me. I’m fascinated by the notion that random events can have an impact on something, perhaps people, events or outcomes, through their seemingly unrelated interconnections. 

The famous metaphor ‘a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas’ still intrigues me; I think it is the notion of possibility and probability never quite being in balance. It is the space between the cause and effect, and the connection with intended and unintended consequences that interests me. I also love the idea that it might be possible to mathematically model such phenomena. However, for the purpose of this week’s blog I’m drawing on a simpler definition of chaos that might be best described as a state of ‘complete disorder and confusion’. 

Such disorder and confusion could be seen last week, mainly, but not exclusively, to do with what happened at the Port of Dover. I hope none of my readers were caught up in the chaos of trying to start their holiday. Actually, last week felt a particularly chaotic week for many, me included. 

Monday was the start of our mini heatwave – although up here in the North West temperatures weren’t as extreme as had been predicted. It was warm but not excessively so. Tuesday was a different story. I got in my car to drive home to find the inside temperature was 45c, which did feel warm. There was certainly a lot more disruption throughout the day, and I take my hat off to all those folk working during this heat over that 48 hour period. Particular to all my NHS colleagues who were working in buildings, many of which were not designed to deal with such heat. Colleagues working in estates and catering did an absolutely sterling job of keeping wards, buildings and people cool. True teamwork.

Wednesday dawned and it was considerably cooler. Just as well, as I was attending one of the University of Salford’s graduation ceremonies. I was there for the last of my PhD students. Graduation ceremonies are what I would call ‘organised chaos’. There is often much confusion, but eventually everything falls into place and the ceremonies get done. The academic robing room, usually a chaotic and fraught environment, was unusually calm when I walked in. Sadly, my robes hadn’t arrived. The lady in charge was very kind and got me kitted out in a Strathclyde Doctoral gown. It was a delicate shade of pale blue. Wearing it didn’t feel right, but as my mother was often wont to say ‘beggars can’t be choosers’. Thankfully she lived in an era where woke was something you did after being asleep.  

The ceremonial procession was wonderful, the speeches a shade too long, the women’s shoes outstandingly impractical for walking across the stage, the brass band music inspirational and a good time was had by all. Saying goodbye to the students, a group of us went for a meal and a celebratory drink. It was fun, and by the time I got on the tram to the station I was in good spirits. My good mood didn’t last. I walked onto the platform to see my planned train home leaving the station. I had missed it by a few seconds. That’s when the chaos started in earnest.

The next two trains were cancelled, the one after eventually came into the station, everyone got off, including the driver and conductor, and the train lights were turned off. We were told it wasn’t going anywhere as there were no more drivers, but there was a train coming from the airport which would be going all the way to Blackpool. It took another 40 mins to arrive and the journey home took another hour. So, it was 01.45 when I eventually climbed into bed, a bed that I climbed out of again at 04.30 to go to work.

Last Thursday it was hard doing the early morning chores, feeding the animals, taking Dylan the dog for his first walk, but I was able to leave in time. As I drove towards Manchester, I listened to Radio 4’s Farming Today programme. I have listened to it for years. Its focus is on agriculture and horticulture, and fishery issues and the reporting is all about realpolitik. Thursday’s programme explored the impact of our recently agreed trade deal with New Zealand. The overwhelming view of the farmers interviewed was that it would be extremely damaging to British agriculture. I continued on my way but 30 mins later got stuck in a 7 mile traffic jam on the M60. A lorry had caught fire during the night and 3 of the 4 lanes were coned off. It was utter disorder and confusion. It took me 90 mins to get through the jam. Which meant I was able to listen to the Liz Truss interview on Radio 4’s Today programme. Unlike the farmers, she thought the deal she had agreed with New Zealand was the best thing since sliced bread. Sadly, we will have to wait as only time will tell who is right. I’m just thankful to be a vegetarian.

One of the things we don’t have to wait to find out is who will be footing the bill for the NHS pay award announced last Tuesday by our new Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Steve Barclay. There was already a 3% pay rise baked into existing NHS budgets but much anxiety over who might have to pay for anything over this percentage point rise. On Friday, I received a letter from the sometimes demonised NHS England Chief Financial Officer Julian Kelly saying that the Pay Review Board recommendations (most of which were much higher than 3%) would be funded in full from central NHS funds. The decision to fully fund these pay rises means front line services will be protected. More than ever now, this is so important. The NHS is currently seeing 10% more patients than in pre-pandemic times, a reflection of an amazing contribution from colleagues being made even at time of continuing Covid challenges. The letter and what it represents was a most welcome and timely response. 

It was a letter that acknowledged that NHS colleagues have, and continue to make, such a difference to so many people lives. It is my sincere hope the pay uplift announced is enough to avoid the chaos and conflict that would inevitably arise from NHS colleagues taking industrial action in pursuit of a possible bigger pay rise. This might not be a popular assertion, and it it definitely not a political point. My hope is that we continue to seize the many opportunities we currently have to transform and improve how the NHS delivers its services in a more integrated way. 


*Sun Tzu


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